#SEARCH ACTIVITY ECONOMICS FULL#
#SEARCH ACTIVITY ECONOMICS PROFESSIONAL#

“Lots and lots of tourism issues boil down to this behavior. Searches related to renting a car, going on vacation, or buying a house can predict aggregate economic activity that occurs months later. For some economic activity, however, intentions occur months or even years in advance of the actions. For example, people who search for “coffee near me” are very likely to purchase coffee very soon thereafter. Varian highlighted Google as a “database of intentions,” citing that many searches lead to quick actions.

His talk provided an overview, and several examples, of how search data correlates with economic activity in given industries, and how it can predict the more infrequent and periodic government data. Google Trends-which provides data on what people are searching for in real time-provides daily or weekly reports on the search volume on any topic. For example, much of the economic data that governments release have a lag: the data for a given month is generally released a month later, and are typically revised several months after that.

#SEARCH ACTIVITY ECONOMICS FULL#

The full lecture can be viewed below or on YouTube here.ĭata is often created continuously, but reported monthly or quarterly. Hal’s work and presentation builds on research he co-authored with Hyunyoung Choi in 2010, titled Predicting the Present with Google Trends, which has since been cited over 3000 times. “Nowcasting in economics is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of an economic indicator,” he said.

#SEARCH ACTIVITY ECONOMICS PROFESSIONAL#

Varian visited the Department to deliver the Okun Lecture, an annual series that “seeks to recognize and encourage professional economists to search for policies that will contribute to the betterment of life and living.” His talk, titled “Nowcasting with Google Trends,” explored how Google search queries can be used to predict economic variables in real time. In a talk this week hosted by the Department of Economics, Google’s Chief Economist Hal Varian presented on how Google Trends can be used to forecast economic activity, including GDP, unemployment, and where you’ll buy your next coffee. Von Neumann J (1945) A model of general economic equilibrium.Can Google search data predict the economy? Ten Raa T, Shestalova V (2015) Supply-use framework for international environmental policy analysis. Ten Raa T (2011) Benchmarking and industry performance.

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